US Trucking Market Recovery Gains Momentum as Valentine’s Day Flower Shipments Rise

The US trucking market recovery may be gaining traction as Valentine’s Day flower shipments push refrigerated freight demand higher. After a prolonged downturn, tighter capacity and rising spot rates are offering early signs of stabilization across key transport lanes.

Spot market data supports the shift. The national average refrigerated spot rate reached 2.81 dollars per mile in January, a 10% increase compared with the same period last year and the highest level since late 2022. On key lanes out of Miami, off contract rates surged as much as 40% due to the concentration of imported floral freight.

The tighter market is partly the result of reduced capacity. Analysts estimate there are about 110,000 fewer heavy duty truck drivers active today than during the industry’s peak. Combined with carrier exits over the past two years, that contraction means even predictable seasonal demand can have an outsized impact on rates.

Cold weather has added further strain, increasing the need for refrigerated trailers to protect other sensitive goods. This has limited available equipment and strengthened carriers’ pricing leverage.

While the Valentine’s Day rush alone does not confirm a full recovery, the combination of higher rates, constrained capacity, and improved driver pay suggests the freight market may be stabilizing after a prolonged downturn. Sustained demand in the months ahead will determine whether this momentum continues.