Freight Capacity Falling Faster Than Demand — Signs of a Market Rebound?

The U.S. trucking market is showing a major shift, truckload capacity is shrinking faster than freight demand.After months of market imbalance, new data suggests that many small carriers are exiting the market, while shippers are still moving steady freight volumes.

What’s Happening in the Market

According to FreightWaves and other logistics data sources, the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) dropped to its lowest point for October in years. At the same time, the number of active carriers and available trucks continues to decline, signaling a tightening market ahead of the holiday season.

In simple terms, there are fewer trucks chasing roughly the same amount of freight.

What This Means for Carriers and Owner-Operators

For many small fleets and independent drivers, the past year has been brutal. High fuel prices, maintenance costs, and falling spot rates pushed thousands of operators out of business. Now, with capacity shrinking, those who remain might finally see some rate recovery and better load opportunities in the coming weeks.

If this trend continues, we could see:

• Gradual increase in spot market rates, especially for dry van and flatbed freight.

• Higher utilization for remaining carriers.

• Shippers beginning to lock in capacity early for the holiday season.

  
  

How Hotshot and Flatbed Operators Can Benefit

For hotshot and flatbed drivers, this shift can be an advantage.Many brokers are already reporting tighter availability for specialized loads. Now is the time to:

• Strengthen relationships with brokers and direct shippers.

• Focus on high-value and time-sensitive freight.

• Keep equipment in top condition to capitalize on increased demand.

  
  

What’s Next for the Trucking Industry

While no one can predict exactly how long this capacity contraction will last, it’s clear that market balance is returning. As weaker carriers exit and freight volumes remain stable, rates are likely to stabilize or even rise slightly heading into 2026.